Lenses and notes
Open the hood when you need it.
A lens is not the correct map of the world. It is a question that helps reveal a typical error, and every question has limits.
empirical componentsWhat is observation here, and what is already a causal story?Fact and explanation · Cognitive bias · Kahneman
Useful when: When confidence rests more on wording than on data.
Limit: The boundary is not always clean: observation also depends on measurement and context.
Evidence status: empirical components.
heuristicIs this a constraint or a symptom of a deeper constraint?Constraint and root cause · Theory of Constraints · Goldratt
Useful when: When the same problem returns after local fixes.
Limit: Searching for one root cause can oversimplify a system with interacting causes.
Evidence status: heuristic.
heuristicWhich options disappeared because we silently treated something as fixed?Breaking a hidden assumption · Lateral thinking · de Bono
Useful when: When the decision is trapped between two familiar options.
Limit: Generating unusual options does not establish feasibility or value.
Evidence status: heuristic.
empirical methodWhat usually happens in a genuinely comparable class of situations?Outside view · Reference classes · forecasting
Useful when: When an inside story of uniqueness displaces evidence from similar cases.
Limit: A poor reference class creates false precision.
Evidence status: empirical method.
empirical components + heuristicIf the decision failed, which mechanism most plausibly broke it?Inversion and premortem · Inversion · premortem
Useful when: Before action with meaningful downside or a complex execution chain.
Limit: It can become a list of fears without ranking or testing.
Evidence status: empirical components + heuristic.
heuristic / philosophicalHow can we preserve room to manoeuvre and limit irreversible harm?Optionality and ruin · Optionality · Taleb · inversion
Useful when: When uncertainty is high and a full commitment creates unrecoverable downside.
Limit: Excessive caution also has a cost and may block learning.
Evidence status: heuristic / philosophical.
heuristic / contestedAre we disputing facts, or using different criteria for a good outcome?Stakeholder and worldview · Systems · stakeholder views
Useful when: When parties see the same data but judge outcomes through different values and incentives.
Limit: A philosophical map must not hide power asymmetry or incompatible interests.
Evidence status: heuristic / contested.
experience-basedWho has seen this from the inside, and what do they know that public data does not?Tacit knowledge · Independent participants
Useful when: When execution practice, local context, or informal constraints matter.
Limit: One person’s experience may be unrepresentative and still needs testing.
Evidence status: experience-based.
An author’s authority does not replace evidence. Empirical, heuristic, philosophical, and contested are not prestige ratings; they indicate how cautiously a lens should be used.
The Reality Skill practice
Components have different support. The combination remains a working hypothesis.
First Position and The Return create a measurement frame, but participant value should arise in expanding the map.
Decision records reveal patterns first. The term base rate is reserved for a sufficiently homogeneous class with a clear denominator.
After each outcome, the record includes not only participant error but what the Chartroom or the practice missed.