Decision review · 8–12 minutes

Write a First Position first.

Six questions help you write a First Position and set The Return. Go deeper only when stakes and irreversibility justify the extra work.

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Core path0% complete

What genuinely needs to be decided, and by when?

Frame the choice so it is clear when a decision must be made.

Decision question

Deadline

What do we know, and what do we think we know?

Do not let explanation quietly become fact.

Observations and sufficiently supported facts

Interpretations and assumptions

Could the current problem be a symptom?

What deeper constraint keeps creating it?

Deeper constraint

What other picture explains the same data?

Build a strong competing explanation, not a weak caricature.

Strongest alternative picture

Which one new fact, person, or cheap experiment would most change the decision?

Seek information most likely to change action, not simply more information.

Highest-value next test

What will you do, what do you expect, and when will The Return happen?

Record the action and expectation before the outcome rewrites the story.

Decision or next action

Expected outcome

The Return

Look through another lens

Choose a lens and receive one additional question, not a lecture.

Which lens do I need?

Choose a lens

Go deeper: additional fields

Premortem / failure modes

If the plan failed, what most plausibly broke it?

Reference class

Which class of situations is genuinely comparable, and what usually happens there?

Probability and confidence

Confidence in the current model, %

Probability of serious harm, %

Evidence provenance

Where did the key claims come from, and how reliable is the source?

Competing models

Which data would distinguish the leading and alternative models?

Stopping and update rules

Which information is no longer worth collecting?

Which event would trigger a decision update?

AI red-team brief

Which details can be safely included in an independent AI challenge?

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AI as a separate challenge, not a judge

Complete your own position first. The button below only creates text in your browser and sends nothing.

Local records

Hold The Return after the outcome.

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