Look
Understand the situation.
Describe the desired result, observations, starting explanation and important unknowns before outside influence.
The Reality Skill Loop
A practical method for deciding and learning.
A decision-making framework under uncertainty starts by checking the question. Where are you now, where do you want to end up, and what do you already have? Reality Skill helps you revisit the larger goal, map evidence and alternatives, test risk, commit clearly, and return to the outcome.
The Reality Skill Loop
Frame → gather independent views → choose and assign → act and check → learn and adjust.
LookBearingsNext moveReality check
One continuing practice
From the first view to what happens next.
The four stages connect independent observations, alternative explanations, manageable action and continuing feedback. Return to any earlier question when the evidence changes the picture; keep the earlier expectation so you can see what you learned.
This method is research-informed, not scientifically proven as a complete system. Read the independent-input research and limits and try the printable worksheet.
Take a second look
Start with the outcome you actually want.
A decision is often presented as “Which option should I choose?” The more valuable question may be “What outcome am I actually trying to create, and is this choice the best route?”
Write down your starting view before discussion or an AI response changes it. Then separate what was observed from what was reported, inferred, predicted, valued, or silently assumed. You can welcome new perspectives and still see how they changed your mind.
Our symbol makes the same invitation: notice the picture you constructed and the external conditions you act within. Some limits deserve a second look; others must be respected. Explore the philosophy behind the logo
The Reality Skill Loop
The Reality Skill Loop
Bearings
Compare perspectives and reframe.
Record independent views before comparison or AI suggestions. Explore alternative explanations, assumptions and options; people decide what to accept.
Next move
Prepare a manageable action.
Choose a useful next move and break larger work into steps. Name responsibility, limits, an expected result, check-ins and a Reality Date.
Reality check
Learn and correct the course.
Compare expectation with observation. Continue, adjust a step, revisit the explanation or reconsider the goal. Preserve what you learned.
An illustrative decision
“Should we hire?” may be the beginning of the question.
Imagine a small team whose work keeps arriving late. Hiring is one possible answer. Understanding where the work waits may reveal another.
This fictional example shows how to use the method; it is not a customer result or a recommendation for every team.
Name the larger goal.
The goal is dependable delivery within a sustainable workload. Hiring is a possible route, alongside changing ownership, scope, or the review process.
Check where the work waits.
Separate observed delays from the assumption that capacity is too low. Ask team members for independent views: is work waiting for someone to do it, approve it, or take ownership?
Choose a bounded test.
If unclear ownership looks important, try named review owners for two weeks. Record the prediction, workload limit, and stop condition before starting. The staffing question stays open.
Let the result inform the next move.
Compare delivery times, review delays, and workload with the starting record. If the prediction fails, revisit the explanation rather than treating the trial as proof that hiring is unnecessary.
A date to learn
Set a Reality Date.
Choose a date when useful evidence should be available, and record what you expect to observe. Return to compare expectations with events—even if the result is incomplete or surprising. Separate the quality of the reasoning from good or bad luck.
Explore Reality Dates and decision reviewsThe claim grammar
Six labels stop explanation from becoming evidence.
Before asking how strongly a decision is supported, separate what you saw from what you were told—and both from what was assumed in silence.
Observed
Something you saw or measured directly.
Reported
Something another person, document, or source told you.
Interpreted
The meaning or causal story you infer from the signals.
Predicted
What you expect to happen, ideally with a date or threshold.
Valued
What matters and how you will judge a good outcome.
Assumed
Something treated as true without having been checked.
Why assumptions deserve their own label
An interpretation can be examined because it is stated. An assumption often shapes the whole decision while remaining invisible. Naming it creates a place to test it.
Evidence and perspectives
Ask where the mechanism actually lives.
A claim about a person may really describe a process delay. A market explanation may hide a weak source. Claim type and reality layer are independent axes.
Self and perception
Goals, attention, energy, risk tolerance, and the mental models shaping what reaches you as reality.
People and incentives
What people want, fear, receive rewards for, and do while anticipating one another.
Systems and processes
Feedback loops, delays, decision rights, bottlenecks, handoffs, and variation.
Environment
Economics, regulation, technology, competition, geography, and physical constraints.
Information
Source provenance, algorithms, generated content, and the path between an event and your model of it.
Decisions under uncertainty
The best available decision is designed around what you can survive and learn.
Uncertainty cannot always be removed. It can be shaped: limit irreversible downside, preserve manoeuvrability, and spend attention only where new information can change the path.
Can we handle the credible worst case?
Do not optimize expected upside while ignoring an outcome that would remove the ability to recover or try again.
How much exposure fits our tolerance?
Make acceptable loss, time, reputation, and commitment explicit instead of allowing risk tolerance to remain an argument about personality.
What alternatives are already available?
Check the obvious option set, the option that was silently excluded, and the smallest reversible move that can buy better information.
Where does the mechanism really live?
Test whether the blockage sits in a person, an incentive, a process, a system, the environment, the information layer—or your own ego and perception.
Who can see the full case with fresh eyes?
Give a helper the relevant context, but collect their view before it is shaped by your preferred answer or the opinions of everyone else in the room.
What will reality be able to tell us?
State the prediction, the signal that would change the view, and the date to return. A decision should produce information for the next decision.
AI as a thinking tool
Use AI. Keep your judgment.
- Structure input and preserve distinctions
- Compare angles without losing detail
- Find gaps, contradictions, and questions
- Summarize without erasing disagreement
- Set your goals or values
- Know hidden facts or motives
- Declare one option objectively correct
- Carry the consequences of the decision
Questions, answered
What people usually want to know.
What is an evidence-first decision-making method?
It is a structured process that first checks whether the apparent choice serves the larger goal, then distinguishes direct observation, reported information, interpretation, prediction, values, and assumptions before commitment.
How does the framework help with decisions under uncertainty?
It tests worst-case survivability, risk tolerance, reversibility, available alternatives, key assumptions, and what new information could change the path. The aim is not certainty, but a responsible decision that preserves the ability to learn.
Does the method require complete information?
No. Its purpose is to make the important unknown visible, decide whether one more check is worthwhile, and record uncertainty honestly before acting.
What does AI do in the process?
AI can organize material, compare perspectives, find gaps, and propose questions. It does not set the goal, know hidden facts, or own the decision.
Research and established thinking practices
Where the method draws its tools.
Reality Skill brings these practices into an approachable cycle of understanding, action and learning. Their evidence differs; the complete Reality Skill process still needs its own documented outcome evidence.
Independent input
Research on individual idea generation followed by group work supports collecting views before discussion in relevant settings. It does not establish that every independent group decision is better.
Girotra, Terwiesch and Ulrich, 2010 →Deliberate creative thinking
Edward de Bono’s work offers ways to challenge familiar patterns and generate alternatives. We use that tradition as an inspiration for questions and reframing; a new perspective still needs checking.
Serious Creativity →Constraints and assumptions
Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints and inherent simplicity encourage examining what limits the whole and which beliefs shape the apparent problem. A proposed constraint remains a hypothesis to investigate.
Goldratt’s basic assumptions of TOC →Premortems and reality feedback
Gary Klein’s premortem asks how a plan might fail. Those possibilities can inform early warning signs. In our loop, people then record expectations, check actual events and decide what to change.
Klein’s premortem method →These references acknowledge intellectual foundations; they do not imply endorsement or validation of Reality Skill by their authors.
Your first company decision
Check one problem before the next fix.
Bring one recurring problem. The first assisted checks are coordinated by hand; participation, scope and dates are agreed before work starts. You keep the decision.
Request an assisted checkSee current annual license prices · Explore the product demo
Keep the question connected
Related guides: Decision-Making Models: Choose the Right Method · Cognitive Bias in Decision-Making · 12 Decision-Making Lenses
See an investigation in practice: prepared owner and manager demo. Prepare your Focus Card · Start a personal situation free · Advisor role.